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Monday, November 26, 2007

BCS, Washington

Dave Reardon writes about Hawaii's unprecedented rankings, a Harris poll secret admirer, and BCS bowl scenarios.
Since the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans has last choice of teams, that's where midmajor Hawaii without a proven mainland following would probably end up. It's not impossible that the Warriors could play in the more geographically friendly Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, but Benson said bowl games officials make the final decision.

The Rose Bowl is an outside possibility if Ohio State gets in the national championship game, but officials of the granddaddy of 'em all may be hesitant to break far enough from tradition to invite Hawaii.

UH athletic director Herman Frazier was a Fiesta Bowl director and chairman when he worked at Arizona State. He reserved comment on the situation.

"(Frazier's) got great relationships there, but the Fiesta Bowl will do what's best for the Fiesta Bowl. Right now I think the BCS takes care of itself, and there's no lobbying to do there," Benson said. "It's a matter of which bowl believes that Hawaii's the best team for it."
I can see 20,000 UH fans going to the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. Lots of ex-Hawaii residents on the West Coast and Arizona, and no matter what, thousands of Hawaii residents would fly up, guarans!

Here's what Mike Huguenin of Rivals.com has to say if UH plays in a BCS bowl.
Hawaii is a scary opponent for any defense. Yeah, we know all about how Hawaii has no running game, has played a weak schedule and is mediocre on defense. So what. If the Warriors get into a BCS game, woe is the team that plays them. QB Colt Brennan and his deep corps of receivers are going to pose problems. Now, we're not saying Hawaii is going to win. We're just saying the Warriors will cause a lot of sleepless nights for the opposing defensive coordinator and defensive backs.
Hope UH gets a chance to disprove a few of the stereotypes he lists in the first sentence.

Ferd Lewis talks to some "BCS experts" about Hawaii's chances of going to a BCS bowl.
"If Hawai'i beats Washington that should be enough," said Sam Chi, of www.BCSguru.com. "I'd put it at about 95 percent. It should be a near slam-dunk now." Last week, Chi had posted on his Web site: "The Warriors, at No. 15, may have already climbed to the top of Mauna Kea and can't go any higher."

Jerry Palm, whose www.CollegeBCS.com tracks the BCS standings, estimated at "90" percent the Warriors' chances of earning the prized BCS berth if they prevail over Washington. Last month, Palm had warned, "Hawai'i's schedule is so bad that they might not crack the top 15 in the computers, even at 12-0."
Bob Frantz of the San Francisco Examiner isn't just thinking BCS bowl for UH, he's thinking championship.
It’s almost as if the best teams in the nation, uniformly disgusted with the NCAA’s archaic method of determining national championship participants, put their heads together and agreed to jumble the BCS standings beyond repair, thereby forcing university presidents and multi-billion dollar sponsors to join the 21st century and institute a national playoff system.

So with the top teams all falling by the wayside one week at a time, and with a boatload of flawed one- and two-loss teams scrambling to replace them for their own temporary stay in the Top 5 land of instant mediocrity, it’s time for someone to ask this question:

Why not Hawaii?
It’s time to bury this power conference nonsense once and for all. If they finish their perfect season with a win over Washington on Saturday, the Warriors deserve their shot.
Unfortunately, this will just remain in the land of the theoretical. Perhaps in 20 years, there will be a Division I-A football playoff.

Ferd Lewis writes about a likely Hawaii Bowl scenario should UH happen to not be there.
Fresno State vs. East Carolina is emerging as the most likely matchup in the Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl, should the University of Hawai'i earn a Bowl Championship Series berth.
It's really nice to think about all these scenarios, but first of course there's Washington. And they're a lot better than their record indicates, having played one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

Don Ruiz of The News Tribune writes about the Huskies' chance to destroy all our BCS dreams.
Washington coaches and players say they are grateful that they have one more chance to ease their pain Saturday (8:30 p.m., ESPN2) by spoiling Hawaii’s dreams in what will certainly be a loud and full Aloha Stadium.

“We’ve got an opportunity to go play a football team that gives us an opportunity to recover some of the things that we’ve lost this year,” coach Tyrone Willingham said. “We’ve got an opportunity to play a football game in December. When you start playing in December, usually good things are happening, and we want to start recognizing that.”
John Boyle of HeraldNet has a column previewing the game.
Instead, let's just assume that Hawaii and quarterback Colt Brennan will put up some crazy numbers in Honolulu on Saturday evening (I'm going to put the unofficial over-under on Hawaii passing yards at 600. Anybody want the under?). So how the heck can Washington win if unbeaten Hawaii is throwing the ball around and scoring with ease?

Well, that's where the offense comes in. Let's say Jake Locker, Louis Rankin and company can put together a game reminiscent of their better efforts this year. Picture 500-plus yards of offense and 45-55 points. That just might be enough to do it, especially if the rushing game can get going and keep Brennan off the field for large chunks of time.

Is a 500-yard, 50-point day too much to expect out of an offense? Absolutely. Is it the only way the Huskies can win? Most likely.
Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times takes a look at the matchup.
Lots of December games will determine bowl slots and conference titles, but UW will be playing solely to prevent a disappointing season from getting worse. The Huskies fell to 4-8 and with the loss to WSU are 1-8 against the traditional Northwest rivals under Willingham.

Most on the hot seat in Hawaii will be a UW defense that is now almost assured of being the worst in school history. The Huskies are giving up 438.8 yards per game this season — the previous worst is 419.1 in 2005, the first year for Willingham and defensive coordinator Kent Baer.
But Baer said after the WSU loss that the Hawaii game is a chance "to make a statement in a huge game" and, sounding like a coach who plans on being around for a while, he talks about the bright future he sees for the UW defense.

"I think we will get better," Baer said. "We've got a lot of good young kids."
Nathan Ware of The Dawgblawg has a prediction, as well as a backhanded compliment.
Their strength (passing) is our weakness (defending it). It's got the look of an ugly game but the spread is only 10 points. If you're a bettor, bet the ranch on the Warriors with that point spread.

The worst part about this for UW is that the entire country will be watching. I'll give you my prediction early this week: Hawaii 54, UW 37. How bad is the defense when we are predicting blowout losses to WAC teams?
Nothing wrong with getting blown out by a WAC team. It happens. Ask Arizona State.

And Ferd Lewis writes about another meeting between Washington and Hawaii, back in 1973.
The University of Hawai'i football team opened as a 10-point favorite over Washington for Saturday's season finale, which is a far cry from the last time the two teams met.

"Back then (in Seattle in 1973)," recalls Rick Blangiardi, "we turned on the TV and Jimmy the Greek, who was doing telecasts, said we were 50-point underdogs. That was the way people viewed it."

A prized game ball — with the score, Hawai'i 10, Washington 7, emblazoned in white — sits in a prominent place in Blangiardi's office of president and general manager at KGMB-TV, enduring testimony to one of the biggest victories in UH history.

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